☃️ Happy Holidays! 🎄
It’s hard to believe that we only have two weeks before the new year…!
As we head into 2026, we see the usual market slowdown.
During the month of November, no new sales records were set. You can see in the graphs below that prices have slightly declined during the second half of 2025.
How much inventory is left? At the end of July, the number of homes available on the market peaked. In the past two weeks, inventory has dropped by over 11%. In the charts below, you can see how inventory has gone up and down for the past couple of years.
Listings are taking longer to sell: Days on Market has increased throughout the year. Today, most properties sit on the market for 3-4 weeks, before opening escrow with an accepted offer. In San Marcos, the median number of days on market for November sales was 42. This is a substantial increase from previous years, when most homes sold within a week.
Here are November 2025 median detached home sales prices, with inventory numbers as of December 15, 2025:
Carlsbad – $1,700,000
Last all-time high: $1,972,500 – June 2025
Encinitas/Cardiff-by-the-Sea – $2,650,000
All-time high: $3,100,000 – September 2023
San Marcos – $1,210,000
Last all-time high: $1,340,000 – April 2025
Vista – $949,000
All-time high: $1,008,500 – June 2025
Oceanside – $965,000
Last record: $1,031,000 – December 2024
Escondido – $935,000
Last all-time high: $1,044,000 – July 2025
Interest Rates and the December Fed Rate Drop
People often talk about the federal funds rate with mortgage interest rates. Whenever there’s a decrease, people think that mortgage rates are about to drop. As we have seen in the past, it doesn’t work that way. People mistakenly tie the overnight funds rate with long-term mortgage rates.
On September 17, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by .25%. Last month, on October 29, the Fed did it again. Last week, on December 10, the Federal Reserve made a third cut, down to a range of 3.50-3.75%.
As usual, news outlets predicted that mortgage rates would also go down. As always, there was no sudden change – and they continue to hover between 6-6.25%.
More than ever, your credit score makes a huge difference. If you’re considering buying or refinancing, start with a credit check, to make sure you can secure the best rate possible. When your FICO goes down, it becomes harder to qualify for a loan.
Homeowners: Is it time to relocate? Do you know how much you’ll net if you sell your property?
If you own a home, it’s probably worth more than you think. Contact me for a free personalized home valuation, or if you have any other real estate questions. I’m always happy to hear from you!
