Update: The Real Estate Market in North County San Diego
Data Source: Mylene’s Real Estate Market Report uses data from CRMLS for 2018-2021 and represents properties listed or sold by various brokers.
Housing Inventory (plus a brief rant about the 2021 market)
As you can see in the charts below, the inventory is still very low, and it continues to drop as we enter the holiday season.
The biggest factor driving the market is the low supply. While it’s true that markets are always changing, and that this won’t last forever, I can’t visualize how or why the market is going to shift. The only way buyers will stop bidding aggressively for homes is if there were more selection, which would immediately disperse the demand. We need more sellers.
I disagree with the common accusation that sellers are greedy. Sellers aren’t responsible for this market; they simply wait for offers to come in. They aren’t encouraging these bidding wars.
From a seller’s point of view, choosing an offer to accept can be overwhelming. When you receive 25 offers, ranging from full price to perhaps $100,000 above asking price, you are just trying to make the best choice to net the most amount of money. Sellers would quickly adapt if buyers were to stop bidding so aggressively.
If there were more homes on the market (i.e., more sellers), the competition would lighten, and prices would stabilize. But there’s a good reason why there are so few sellers: there is nowhere for them to go! Often, a seller will trade one home for another. In today’s market, however, if they are afraid that they won’t be able to find their replacement home, they’ll usually decide to wait until inventory opens up. So now we have a stalemate – sellers are essentially waiting for the inventory to open up before they sell. But they aren’t selling, so there’s no inventory.
Days on Market
Because the inventory is so low, homes are selling quickly. At the same time, the number of days on market for October sales were slightly higher than what we saw during the summer. For November 2021 sales, most detached homes went into escrow within 11 days.
Prices
Throughout 2021, prices have kept increasing throughout San Diego County. In North County alone, November 2021 median sales prices set new records for attached homes in Vista and Oceanside.
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Carlsbad
October Sales: The median sales price for detached homes in Carlsbad for October sales was $1,457,000, down from August’s all-time record of $1,600,000. At the same time, the median sales price for attached homes was $737,000, down from September’s record of $809,005.
Days on Market: Most homes sell within two weeks. The median number of days on market for detached homes sold in October was 7, down from 11 in September. Attached homes sold in October were on the market for a median number of 12 days.
Inventory: Inventory for both detached and attached homes in Carlsbad stayed about the same between early October and early November.
Here’s how the inventory has changed since 2018. Current inventory for detached homes in Carlsbad is less than one-third of what we had two years ago.
Encinitas/Cardiff-by-the-Sea
October Sales: The median sales price for detached homes in Encinitas in October was $1,899,000, down from last month’s all-time record of $2,065,250. The median sales price for attached homes in October was $1,000,000, just lower than June’s all-time high of $1,019,000.
Days on Market: The median number of days on market for October sales was 12 for detached homes, and 9 for attached homes.
Inventory: Inventory levels for Encinitas and Cardiff homes decreased 36% between early October and early November. You can see below that the number of detached homes for sale is at the lowest level on the 2018-2021 chart.
San Marcos
October Sales: The median sales price for detached homes in San Marcos was $940,000, lower than August’s all-time high of $964,887. At the same time, the median sales price for attached homes matched September’s all-time high of $637,000.
Days on Market: The median number of days on market was only 8 days for detached homes, and 9 days for attached homes.
Inventory: Total San Marcos inventory decreased 25% between early October and early November. Today’s levels are similar to what we had one year ago.
Vista
October Sales: The median sales price for detached homes in Vista was $755,000, down from September’s record of $825,000. The median sales price for attached homes reached a new high of $535,000.
Days on Market: The median number of days on market for detached homes was 7 days, and for attached homes was 6 days.
Inventory: In Vista, inventory for detached and attached homes decreased 12% between early October and early November. Detached inventory is similar to what we had one year ago.
Oceanside
October Sales: The median sales price for detached homes in Oceanside in September was $798,749, just under September’s all-time record of $814,500. The median sales price for attached homes in October reached a new all-time high of $530,181.
Here’s how sales prices of Oceanside detached homes have changed since January 2019.
Days On Market: For October sales, both attached and detached homes sold within a median number of 8 days.
Inventory: In Oceanside, inventory levels dropped 17% between early October and early November.
Escondido
October Sales: The median sales price for detached homes was $791,000, down from May’s record high of $841,495. The median sales price for attached homes in October was $425,000, down from April’s record of $460,000.
Here’s how sales prices of Escondido detached homes have changed since January 2019.
Days on Market: The median number of days on market for detached home sales was 11. The median number of days on market for attached homes sold in October was 7.
Inventory: In Escondido, total inventory decreased 11% between early October and early November. Still, the chart below shows how inventory for detached homes is similar to what we had one year ago.
Consult the North County San Diego Real Estate Market Report
My Real Estate Market Report covers the areas of Carlsbad, Encinitas/Leucadia/Cardiff-by-the-Sea, San Marcos, Vista, Oceanside and Escondido.
Download – North County San Diego Market Report – November 2021
Solar Rebates – 26% Federal Tax Credit Available through 2022
Federal tax code allows for a one-time 26% Residential Energy Credit to purchase home solar photovoltaic systems. The credit may include any repairs necessary to install the panels, including roofing repairs and shade tree removal. Check with your tax professional.
The 30% Federal Tax Credit tapered down to a 26% Federal Tax Credit on January 1, 2021. This incentive will taper down to 22% in 2023.
For more information, read my Solar for Homeowners article series.
2021 Mortgage Limits
The 2021 mortgage limit for conventional and FHA loans in San Diego County is $753,250. In addition, the conforming loan limit has increased to $548,250. As a result, loans at or below this amount usually offer the lowest interest rates.
Loans between $548,250 and $753,250 are called super conforming, or high balance loans. Any loans above $753,250 are jumbo loans.
Since January 1, 2020, there is no mortgage limit for VA loans. The lender will determine a VA borrower’s maximum loan amount. VA borrowers are no longer required to bring in a specific down payment amount; the loan program is determined solely by the lender.
Mortgage limits for 2022 should be released later this month.
Interest Rates
Interest rates have remained low all year. With excellent credit, fixed mortgage rates for 30-year terms hover around 3% for conventional loans. VA and FHA loan programs usually offer lower rates, closer to 2.5%.
The best interest rates are available to borrowers with excellent credit scores. Read more about how low interest rates help you save money.
Above all, your credit score plays a big role in determining your interest rate – read more about how to save $ by improving your FICO.
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Low Down Payment Loan Programs
FHA Loan Programs offer mortgages with only 3.5% down payment. In addition, VA Loan Programs offer $0 down payment mortgages to eligible military active duty and veterans, with no monthly mortgage insurance. On the other hand, conventional loans are available starting at only 3% down payment, depending on purchase price, and some of these conventional loans are available with no monthly mortgage insurance.
Moreover, all of these loan programs can be used for either new purchases, or for refinancing existing mortgages.
Have you had a bankruptcy, short sale, or foreclosure? Find out how long you need to wait to buy again, which depends on the event and the type of loan you want to obtain.
Time to Switch to Waterwise Landscaping
More funding is available to remove your lawn – take advantage before it runs out! As a result of the programs, I was paid $2.75 per square foot to replace my turf grass with native landscaping. To learn more, read my article about rebates for turfgrass removal.
If you want to learn more about water-wise landscaping, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California offers free California Friendly Landscape classes online. In addition, the San Diego County Water Authority also offers free WaterSmart Landscape Training classes throughout San Diego County.
Down Payment Assistance
Low- to median-income borrowers may qualify for down payment assistance. In addition, some programs can be layered on top of each other, to maximize your benefit.
Start by using the California Association of REALTORS® Down Payment Resource Tool to check all available programs. Meanwhile, here are links to my articles about some popular down payment programs:
- CalHFA Down Payment Assistance – deferred loans for first-time home buyers (if you haven’t owned a home in 3 years)
- San Diego Housing Commission – deferred loans and grants
- Fannie Mae HomePath Ready Buyer Program – grants up to 3% for Fannie Mae owned homes
- Golden State Finance Authority – grants up to 5% for down payment and closing costs
Finally, you are invited to attend a no-cost online home buyer workshop. Freddie Mac provides this comprehensive homeownership education course. CreditSmart® Homebuyer U offers six modules to promote education, homebuyer preparedness, and financial management.
What’s Next?
Selling Your Home
Are you curious about how much your home is worth? The Real Estate Market Report is a good start, but if you’re interested in the market value a particular property or area, contact me for a specific market analysis. In addition to my Real Estate Market Report, I also provide information about seller closing costs, which can give you the true cost of selling a home.
You can also use my Seller Net Proceeds Worksheet, to estimate your bottom line. Secondly, you can also read about the seller disclosure process. Finally, if you need to sell one home before you can buy another, here’s how to sell and buy a home at the same time.
If you’re a real estate investor and want to defer paying capital gains taxes by exchanging one property for another, then read my article about 1031 Exchanges. Thinking about becoming an investor? Read my article about how to choose a rental property.
Buying a Home
My real estate market report can help you see how home values are changing throughout North County. Are you considering becoming a homeowner in this area?
To begin with, if you’re thinking of buying a home, use my Cost to Buy a House Worksheet and my Monthly Housing Costs Worksheet. Secondly, you can also estimate your Mortgage Approval Amount. Finally, learn more about the Cost to Buy a House and the Cost to Own a Home. On the other hand, if you are a cash buyer, read about Closing Costs for Cash Buyers.
Meanwhile, if you need funds for the down payment, read about Down Payment Funding Options.
If you’re interested in buying a fixer property, you can consider a Renovation Loan. Renovation loans finance both property and renovations, in one single mortgage payment. For example, renovation loans can be used to finance energy upgrades and fireproofing upgrades, such as insulation, solar panels, and electric heat pump water heaters. Most importantly, read about 7 Ways to Finance Energy Upgrades before you invest in energy efficiency.
Finally, for information about mortgages, you can read my articles about Choosing a Lender, How to Get Mortgage Approval, and How Much Home You Can Qualify to Buy.
Any questions? Would you like market data for San Diego areas not included in my Real Estate Market Report? Send me a message.
